6 January 2020

AAN Releases New Polling In 3 Districts On Impeachment

American Action Network released new polling in three districts (NY-22, SC-01, and NM-02) this morning conducted shortly after the vote to impeach President Trump.

The polling shows that impeachment has become an extremely memorable issue that has broken through to folks back home unlike almost any issue in recent memory.

The full memo is available below and a PDF version is available here.


M E M O R A N D U M

TO:        American Action Network
FROM:  Jim Hobart & Glen Bolger
RE:        Key Findings From Poll Of Three Districts On Impeachment
DATE:    January 6, 2020

Methodology
On behalf of American Action Network, NMB Research conducted a telephone survey of 400 likely voters in each of three Congressional Districts: NY-22, SC-01, and NM-02. All three surveys were conducted December 18-19, 2019. Each survey included 200 interviews with cell phone respondents. The margin of error in each is +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Summary
American Action Network has been advertising in the districts of Representatives Anthony Brindisi, Joe Cunningham and Xochitl Torres Small since early November on the issue of impeachment.

Our polling finds that impeachment has become an extremely high-visibility issue. Universally, constituents in these districts report having seen, read or heard information about their Member of Congress and impeachment, and the information they’ve received has given them a highly negative view of the impeachment process, strong enough to provoke significant negative reactions when their Members of Congress support it.

Data shows that AAN’s campaign has had a significant effect in shaping the terms of public debate over the impeachment of President Trump. Constituents remain opposed to impeaching the President by large majorities – in all cases they oppose impeaching Trump by a margin wider than their vote to elect President Trump in the first place. Additionally, significant majorities of respondents agree with the three core messages of AAN’s advertising campaign.

Key Findings

1. Nearly all constituents in these districts report having seen, read or heard information about their Representatives and impeachment.

District % Seen, Read or Heard % Have Not Seen, Read or Heard
NY-22 96% 3%
SC-01 94% 5%
NM-02 94% 4%

 

2. Impeachment is an issue that is breaking through. The vast majority of constituents in these districts can correctly recall how their Member of Congress voted on impeachment. 

District % Say Voted For % Say Voted Against % Don’t Know
NY-22 75% 2% 23%
SC-01 70% 2% 28%
NM-02 67% 3% 30%

 

3. Impeachment is incredibly unpopular. In these Trump-districts, constituents oppose impeachment by margins wider than that by which they elected President Trump.

District % Favor % Oppose Oppose Margin Trump Margin
NY-22 41% 57% -16 +15
SC-01 41% 58% -17 +13
NM-02 41% 56% -15 +10

 

4. As constituents have learned more about their Member of Congress and their vote to impeach Trump, their opinion of their Member of Congress has become more negative.

“Has what you’ve seen, read or heard regarding [Member of Congress] and impeachment given you’re more favorable or less favorable impression of [him/her]?

District % More Favorable % Less Favorable
NY-22 34% 53%
SC-01 38% 47%
NM-02 36% 52%

 

5. Majorities agree with AAN’s core messages of the campaign.

“Instead of trying to impeach Trump and remove him from office, Democrats should let the voters decide for themselves next November’s elections.”

District Agree Disagree
NY-22 62% 36%
SC-01 62% 38%
NM-02 65% 33%

 

“Democrats’ focus on impeachment is hurting Congress’ ability to get more important things done.”

District Agree Disagree
NY-22 66% 33%
SC-01 59% 40%
NM-02 63% 36%

 

“[Member of Congress] is part of partisan impeachment process that is a political charade.”

District Agree Disagree
NY-22 55% 40%
SC-01 54% 41%
NM-02 52% 40%

View PDF of Polling Memo


Zach Hunter

Vice President